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+ K 2cos 28 )]

(15.131)

It is clear that in the last integral cos 2 8 may be replaced by sin28 without altering the value of the integral. Therefore 2 2 cosh 2j3 ) 1 " y= !log ( sinh2j3 + 27T fa dcf> log !(1 + K2sin2cf (15.132)

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al(O, T):

(15.133) sin2 cf> il(1 + il) (15.134)

One success story with this technique was Safeway Stores (symbol SWY), shown in Figure 7.41. After a staggering rise in value, the stock started softening, and it fell beneath support in the rst half of 1999. In a few months, it had recovered some and was pushed up against the underside of its trendline. A short sale at that point would have yielded marvelous pro ts, since the stock was exhausted and didn t attempt such an assault on its trendline again. A close-up view of this event is shown in Figure 7.42, which also highlights how one must be somewhat discerning when watching price action around trendlines. On the very rst day of August, prices just barely peeked above the trendline. This did not mean that suddenly a new bull market was in place for the stock. Once the ascending trendline is broken, it cannot regain its stature as a reliable measure of upward price movement simply because prices manage to sneak to the other side. In this case, the trendline provided a valuable line in the sand that prices were prohibited from crossing. The prices did get across this line by a few pennies, but certainly not enough to stop looking at the short opportunity. This day in August established the high-water mark for the

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u1(O, T) = dj3 [j3a l (O,

n] =

il(1 + il)

U1(0, T) = - 2 tanh2/3

(15.135)

d/3 1 dK - 2 tanh 2/3 - - 2K d/3

-2 coth2/3 (2 tanh2 2/3 - 1) - coth2/3

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(15.136) (15.137)

FIGURE 7.41 Safeway Stores provides a classic example of a stock trying to get above its trendline only to exhaust itself and fall in earnest.

Thus finally (15.138) where K 1(K) is a tabulated function, the complete elliptic integral of the first kind*: (15.139) and

cosh 2/3 K' == 2 tanh2 2/3 - 1

== ---::--2

2 sinh 2/3

(15.140) (15.141 ) (15.142)

+ K,2

~CI(O, T)

~(/3 coth2/3 )2{2K1(K) -

stock after its trendline break, and it went on to a substantial loss in value afterward. As stated earlier in this chapter, the more experience you gain with drawing, interpreting, and trading based on trendlines, the better you will become. The markets are always changing, and you will learn many of the subtleties in applying drawn objects well and pro tably.

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2E 1(K) - (1 -

K')[~ + K'K1(K)]}

(15.143)

where E 1(K) is a tabulated function, the complete elliptic integral of the second kind: (15.144)

*See, for example, H. Hancock, Elliptic Integrals (Dover, New York, 1958).

Fig. 15.5 The functions /( and /(/.

K 1 ( K) : : : log - ,

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